Already eligible: No one.
Vying for a spot: Troy (5-4) is stuck on five wins after losing to FIU last week for the first time ever. A win over South Carolina, Western Kentucky or FAU would get the Trojans bowl eligible for the third straight season.
FIU and FAU are each 4-5, but the Owls have a difficult stretch of games at Texas, Middle Tennessee and home to Troy. FIU has some tough ones, too: at Louisiana, then home to Arkansas State and Middle Tennessee. If the Panthers win out, they win the Sun Belt. ULM (4-6), Arkansas State (4-6) and Middle Tennessee (3-6) have to win out. The Red Wolves are at Navy and FIU; Middle Tennessee is at Western Kentucky, home to FAU and at FIU; ULM has North Texas and Louisiana.
On the other end of the spectrum: North Texas, Louisiana and Western Kentucky have been eliminated.
Guaranteed bowl spots: Two.