5:15 Update: Readings have risen into the upper-30s and lower-40s, pretty close to expectations today. We still anticipate the clouds to thicken and for scattered snow showers to arrive pre-dawn. Details regarding the mid-week are becoming more clear, too, suggesting a mix of wintry weather.
Colder, but still nice…
Today will be colder, thanks to a cold front that passed earlier in the day. Beginning in the 20s and low-30s earlier this morning, the rest of the day will be breezy and stay colder, with highs generally in the upper-30s with a few lower-40s, especially near the Shoreline. With the front's departure and building high pressure, there will be more sun as the day progresses, as well.
Snow showers are possible Monday that may minor trouble during the morning commute. The front that will have passed by the state earlier this morning will return as a warm front on Monday and bring clouds and scattered snow showers during the morning and early afternoon. It is entirely possible that we will have areas of minor accumulations Monday morning, especially in northern Connecticut. As it looks now, any accumulation would be minor: under 1", but it could be just enough to cause slippery spots in places. By later afternoon, the sun will try to work through the clouds and the readings will reach into the lower-40s.
Tuesday will be milder, thanks to the warm front's passage. Highs will again reach into the upper-40s and low-50s, in a manner similar to Saturday. There will be a little more wind a little more cloud cover than what we experienced with the warmth Saturday, but the day should still be a fairly nice respite from the cold.
The cold will return Wednesday as a chance for a winter storm looms. Cooler air from the north will start to bleed into Connecticut from the north and northeast as a developing storm system approaches New England from the southwest. The circulation into the storm will help draw the cold air into the region through the morning, likely suppressing the temperatures from reaching past 40°. At the same time, the storm will move closer and start to push precipitation into New England by afternoon. Of course, the details are not clear yet. The models are still not showing the consistency a confident forecast requires. What they do show is that we will likely have a storm nearby later Wednesday and Thursday morning that could bring a wintry mix during that period. Some model runs are colder, showing a more "snowy" scenario, whereas other models do pull in enough warm air that a precipitation evolution of a wintry mix to plain rain, then snow would occur. Yet, one other model early today showed the storm pulling out to sea without affecting New England at all. Right now, my inclination is this: we will likely see a storm with wintry precipitation mid-week, so the situation does bear watching.
Once the storm departs -- regardless if we get a direct effect – colder air will come behind, offering highs in the low-30s and lows in the teens Thursday. It will also be windy in the wake of the storm, making Thursday aggravatingly cold for a March day. Weak high pressure will build into the region in Southern New England as a weak low pressure system moves across northern New England. The end result will be filtered sunshine and moderating temperatures: upper-30s Friday and 40s Saturday.
Hope you are enjoying your weekend!
Meteorologist Mike Cameron