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Technical Discussion

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Hope you have been enjoying a wonderful Easter!

 

As we thought, the sea breeze played a big role in what happened with temperatures across the state today, maintaining a cooler day than Saturday.  Nevertheless, the sunshine and relative warmth was breath-taking on this Easter…tomorrow will follow in-kind.

 

Just as the last two mornings have been, tomorrow morning will be clear and cold, with lows generally in the mid-30s.  As with the last two nights, however, there has been wide variation from place to place and there will be again.  In northern Connecticut, there will be pockets where lows sink into the 20s and along the Shoreline, there will be some spots that don't make it much lower than 40°.  In Greater Hartford, we anticipate mid-30s, as we do in Waterbury, Danbury, New Britain and Manchester.

 

Although the morning will be cold, there will be much progress with warming tomorrow, thanks to a developing southwesterly flow.  Sourcing milder air over the Southern Plains, this wind will help bring temperatures well into the 60s – if not near 70° in a few spots.  Because there will be some influence off the water from this wind, coastal areas will be somewhat cooler, with highs in the lower-60s.  Nevertheless, most of Connecticut can plan on a day 10°F warmer than Easter, even with the cooling influence off Long Island Sound.  And, because high pressure is the controlling weather system, all day will be partly to mostly sunny.

 

A little rain will come by the end of Tuesday.  Partly to mostly clear skies will be with us Monday night and into Tuesday.  The southwesterly wind will remain in force overnight, helping the night to feel less cold.  Lows will be in the upper-30s and low 40s by Tuesday morning.  Gradually during the day Tuesday, clouds will increase.  The southwesterly wind will remain steady and busy, while enough sunshine will be seen and felt to help bring temperatures into the middle and upper-60s, if not low-70s, during the afternoon.  By the time the evening commute will be beginning, clouds will have overtaken the whole sky and rain will be approaching the state from the Hudson River Valley of New York.  Light rain or rain showers will enter the state sometime after 5 PM and linger through the night. 

 

Tuesday night and Wednesday morning will be wet.  Scattered showers will continue to move into the state from the west.  Overnight lows will be in the 40s with the rain, assuaging any concern about wintry precipitation.  Wednesday morning's commute will still be somewhat soggy, but the rain should taper off by noon.  When all is said and done, ¼" of rain looks to be a reasonable ballpark number for the state.

 

The sky will gradually clear Wednesday afternoon as a northwesterly wind develops.  Slightly cooler air will come behind the rain, supporting highs a few degrees on either side of 60°F.  High pressure will build into the state Thursday and Friday, offering nice weather with highs in the 60s.  Friday evening, clouds will quickly race into the state and bring scattered rain showers from late Friday evening through Saturday and into Sunday morning.  Highs will be seasonable: in the 60s and lows will be in the 40s during this time.  The weekend may finish on a higher note with partly sunny skies developing Sunday afternoon.

 

 

A couple of other notes:

 

The Connecticut River is still above flood stage in a categorically "minor" flood state at both the Hartford and Haddam gauges.  The forecast is for the river level to slowly go down, falling below flood stage either late Monday or Tuesday.  Until that time, there continues to be a FLOOD WARNING for the Connecticut River.

 

Stargazers who love shooting stars should keep their eyes to the sky for the Lyrid Meteor Shower.  Although it's expected to be most prolific during the night of April 21 and morning of April 22, the bright glow of the moon may actually hinder viewing the 10 to 100 meteor per hour spectacle; NASA suggests instead trying to view them during the early morning of April 23, after moonset.

 

Have a great week!

 

 

Meteorologist Mike Cameron

 

 

 

 

 

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